Global financial markets enter a week of high expectations, with a focus on important economic decisions and indicators that could influence assets in the world’s main financial centers. Traders will be paying close attention to monetary policies, trade tensions and employment data in the United States, in addition to developments in European and Asian politics.

Below, an overview of the main events and expectations for the coming days.

United States: Economic Indicators and Trade Policies Under the Spotlight

The North American economy continues to be the main focus of the markets, mainly due to the release of employment data (Payroll) on Friday. The report will provide crucial information about the strength of the labor market and could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. If the numbers come in above expectations, the Fed may adopt a more cautious tone regarding interest rate cuts, which could directly impact the foreign exchange and stock markets.

Furthermore, President Donald Trump continues to pressure trade partners with new tariffs. Discussions about import taxes on products from Canada and Mexico have not yet been clearly defined, and there is speculation that Trump may postpone them again. However, the possibility of tariffs on the European Union, especially in the automotive sector, is already raising fears about a new trade conflict.

Another point of attention will be the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), considered one of the main inflation indicators used by the Fed. Inflation in the US has shown itself to be resilient, and a higher-than-expected reading could reinforce the maintenance of high interest rates for longer.

Europe: Interest Rate Decision on the Radar and Political Developments

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will decide on the euro zone’s interest rate. Despite inflation falling, the ECB must maintain a conservative stance, without rushing to cut interest rates. The president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, has already indicated that the cuts should only happen in the second half of the year, which could continue to support the euro against the dollar.

Meanwhile, the political scene in Europe remains busy. The election in Germany generated uncertainty, with the conservative party winning the most votes, but without clarity on how the new government will be formed. The impact of this could reflect on market confidence, especially considering the delicate moment of the German economy, which is still struggling with signs of recession.

The European automotive sector will also be on the radar, especially after Trump signaled that he may impose 25% tariffs on vehicles imported from the European Union. If this measure is made official, it could impact the actions of German and French automakers, creating instability in the market.

China and Asia: Economic Outlook and Artificial Intelligence in Focus

In China, operators await the trade balance, which will be released on Friday. The Asian country continues to face challenges in the real estate sector and domestic demand, which has raised doubts about its ability to maintain growth above 5%. However, the Chinese government continues to adopt stimuli, and the World Bank has revised growth projections upwards for 2024 and 2025.

Another big highlight of the week will be Nvidia’s impact on the Asian market. The semiconductor manufacturer released positive numbers last week, showing that the artificial intelligence revolution remains strong. This has boosted Chinese companies in the sector, such as Alibaba and Meituan, which are investing billions to advance in the AI ​​race.

In Japan, operators will be attentive to the decision on monetary policy and the release of the industrial PMI, which will provide a thermometer of economic activity. The Bank of Japan continues to maintain ultra-low interest rates, but there is speculation that the policy could change later this year, depending on the behavior of inflation.

Oil and Gold: Geopolitical Tensions and Impact on Haven Assets

The oil market continues to fluctuate in the face of tensions in the Middle East and new sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran. Restrictions on transport companies that sell Iranian oil could reduce global supply, supporting commodity prices. Additionally, Trump’s decision to revoke Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela has raised concerns about global supply.

Gold, which recently reached historic highs, should continue to be a protective asset in the face of economic and political uncertainty. The search for safe assets has been driven by rising trade tensions and expectations surrounding US monetary policy.

What to Watch for This Week?

Traders will need to monitor three big factors this week:

• US Inflation and Monetary Policy – ​​PCE and Payroll data can set the tone for the Federal Reserve and directly influence the dollar and stock markets.
• ECB decision on interest rates – Any sign of early cuts could impact the euro and European markets.
• Trump’s trade developments – The possible imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico and the European Union could increase volatility in the global market.

Furthermore, the market continues to keep an eye on the advancement of artificial intelligence and Nvidia’s impact on the technology sector, as well as the behavior of commodities in the face of geopolitical tensions.

Volatility must continue to be present in the markets, requiring rapid adaptation and well-defined strategies to take advantage of opportunities that arise.