Welcome to Your Weekly Market Recap: What’s Happening in Financial and What to Watch in the Days Ahead. Follow the full story with OCC!
This is your weekly update on everything happening in the financial markets—and what’s expected in the coming days. With these insights, you’ll have an even clearer picture of how to position yourself for what’s next.
As we often say, the start of the week tends to be a key moment for traders. Major markets reopen, and with them, opportunities emerge at every turn.
This week kicks off with mounting tension in global markets and a growing demand for safe havens. Investors are closely watching for the much-anticipated US tariff announcement from President Donald Trump, expected on April 2, as well as key economic indicators from the United States.
The combination of aggressive trade policy, persistent inflation, and slowing consumer spending creates a challenging environment for trading across global sectors. Commodities like gold and oil reflect this instability, while stock indexes swing with heightened volatility.
Financial Markets Open Lower on Monday in the US
US stock futures opened the week on a downtrend. Dow Jones was down 0.68%, the S&P 500 had fallen 1.07%, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.46%.
This cautious movement reflects investor concerns over a potentially broad tariff package that could impact several countries with which the US has trade deficits. The proposal under discussion includes a flat 20% tariff on imports, affecting sectors like automotive, technology, semiconductors, and industrial goods.
Last week, markets had already closed lower after data showed US household spending grew less than expected, while a core inflation measure posted its strongest rise in 13 months. One-year inflation expectations also rose, reaching their highest level in two and a half years.
Given this backdrop, analysts are warning of stagflation risks—a scenario in which economic activity slows while prices continue rising. This limits the Federal Reserve’s room to act, especially after the Fed held interest rates steady at its last meeting, citing uncertainty around White House trade policy.
Gold Surges to Record High
In response to growing risk aversion, gold hit a new all-time high on Monday, trading above $3,110 per ounce in May futures contracts.
The metal’s rally reflects demand for protection amid geopolitical tensions, potential trade tariffs, and increasing recession fears. Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months to 35%, prompting a more defensive positioning from macro-sensitive investors.
A weaker US dollar and sell-offs in riskier assets also contributed to the gold rally, which remains supported by global flows and inflation concerns.
Oil Turns Volatile: Modest Rebound Doesn’t Offset Quarterly Downtrend
Oil opened Monday with moderate gains, attempting to recover from recent losses. Still, both major benchmarks are on track to end the quarter in negative territory, despite three straight weeks of gains.
The decline reflects worries that global growth could be hit by new US trade policies. Additionally, weakening energy demand in regions like Europe and Asia remains on the radar.
For April, the OPEC+ alliance begins a new gradual production increase plan, which is expected to shift the supply-demand dynamic in the months ahead.
Geopolitical Tensions Rise: US, Russia, and Ukraine at the Forefront
Beyond trade policy, geopolitics remains a major source of market uncertainty. Over the weekend, Donald Trump expressed anger toward Russian President Vladimir Putin following criticisms over Ukraine’s government legitimacy.
In response, Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs of up to 50% on countries that continue purchasing Russian oil if he believes Moscow is hindering ceasefire negotiations.
This marks a sharp shift in diplomatic tone after weeks of conciliatory messages between the two leaders. European officials are closely watching the possibility of a new realignment between Washington and Moscow, which could have serious implications for regional security architecture.
What to Expect in the Coming Days
Several key events this week could significantly impact global market behaviour:
Wednesday, 2 April – “Liberation Day”
- The official announcement of the new US tariff package is expected.
- Harsher measures could drastically reshape international trade dynamics.
- Traders are watching for details about which countries and sectors will be affected, as well as implementation timelines.
Depending on the tone and severity of the announcement, markets may immediately reprice commodities, exporter stocks, and currencies tied to trade-exposed economies.
US Economic Indicators
Throughout the week, inflation data, industrial activity reports, and labour market updates will be released.
Focus is on the PCE index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—and on sector reports that provide early signals ahead of April’s nonfarm payrolls.
Stronger-than-expected results may push bond yields higher and support gold. Weaker numbers could amplify stagflation concerns.
Commodity Movements
Gold may continue its upward trajectory if geopolitical tensions worsen or if the tariff package triggers a flight from risk assets.
Oil is expected to respond more technically, with attention on OPEC+ production and the unfolding of trade sanctions.
With commercial pressures, diplomatic tensions, and mixed signals from the US economy, this week promises to be one of the most sensitive of the quarter. Traders are focused on political decisions that could reshape global flows of goods and capital.
While gold shines as a clear symbol of risk aversion, stock, energy, and tech markets are adapting to an environment where stability is no longer the norm.
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